Year of arrival of Seaford Heights - Seaford Rise small area forecast

Year of arrival explained

Year of arrival groups residents born overseas by the year they first arrived in Australia.

These figures are Place Forecast estimates based on Census data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

People are sorted into bands by the period in which they arrived: 2010 or earlier, Before 1971, 1971 to 1980, 1981 to 1990, 1991 to 2000, 2001 to 2010, 2011 to 2015, 2016 to 2020, In the Census year (1 January to Census night, so 9 August 2016 or 10 August 2021), and Year of arrival not stated.

Each Census published its own bands, so a band carries a figure only for the Censuses that published it. The 2021 Census published decades back to 1971 and fills those bands. The 2016 Census grouped arrivals differently, in bands running 1946 to 1955, 1956 to 1965 and so on, which line up with the 2021 decades only at 2010, so the residents who arrived up to 2010 are shown as one figure rather than split into decades. Splitting them would mean inventing a distribution the Census never published.

Two figures can be read across both Censuses. The residents who arrived in the Census year or the five calendar years before it is the one that survives every Census, including 2026: each Census measures that window to its own Census night, so it covers five full years and a part year. The 2011 to 2015 period is the one band both Censuses publish, and a fall in it between Censuses is people leaving the area, moving on or dying rather than fewer arrivals, because the same group cannot grow.

The Census asks for the year a person first arrived in Australia to live for one year or more. Short visits do not count as the arrival year. The figures describe current residents by when they first arrived in Australia, not when they moved into the area. They do not show how many people migrate each year.

Year of arrival not stated counts residents born overseas whose Census form carried no usable arrival year. They stay in the totals, and in the denominator for percentages, so the bands above are shares of all residents born overseas rather than of those who answered. Nationally this band held 3.3% of residents born overseas in 2016 and 2.2% in 2021. Because it fell, every other band's 2021 share is a little higher for that reason alone. It is larger in some areas, usually where more residents are older, have less English, or answered in a way the ABS could not place in a band.

The figures count overseas-born people at their usual residence. They include people living in non-private dwellings such as hospitals, aged-care homes, hostels, and student housing. Overseas visitors are not included.

Reading this data fairly

These figures show how people answered Census questions. Here are the equity caveats to keep in mind. They keep the numbers fair:

• Year of arrival is one of the Census topics used in CALD analysis. On its own it is not a measure of need.

See the marker methodology for how these figures are calculated and their limitations.