Homelessness explained Place Forecast Feature
Abbreviated as OPGP; referenced by 0 other explainers
Homelessness shows how many people the ABS estimates were experiencing homelessness on Census night. It counts people, not homes. It counts them where they were that night.
These figures are Place Forecast estimates based on Census data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The Census does not ask if someone is homeless. The ABS works it out from other answers. They include where people slept and if they had a usual address. Then it sorts people into six groups:
- People living in improvised dwellings, tents, or sleeping out.
- People in supported accommodation for the homeless.
- People staying temporarily with other households.
- People living in boarding houses.
- People in other temporary lodgings.
- People living in 'severely' crowded dwellings: homes that need four or more extra bedrooms by the standard behind housing suitability.
The ABS publishes the six groups for whole councils only. For small areas it gives one total for each SA2. Place Forecast shares that total out by occupied private dwellings. Then it scales the small areas so they add up to the council's total. So a small area's figure shows the pattern, not where people stayed. People in a refuge or a boarding house are spread across the SA2 around it. If the SA2 figures place no one in a small area, it gets no share.
The ABS also counts three groups who are marginally housed, such as people in caravan parks. It does not count them as homeless. Nor do these figures.
Reading this data fairly
These figures come from one night and one form. Here are the equity caveats to keep in mind. They keep the numbers fair:
- The figures are a floor. The Census misses some people experiencing homelessness. Some who stay with family or friends never show up as homeless.
- The ABS adjusts each figure a little to protect privacy. So the six groups may not add up to the total. In a small council, read the figures as a rough size.
- Some households share space by choice, for care or for culture. A home that needs four or more extra bedrooms still has a real shortage of space.
- Where many people live in crowded homes, it often reflects the cost and supply of bigger homes.
- The ABS made its rules for the whole population. They may not match how Aboriginal people and Torres Strait Islander people understand home. For many, home includes ties to Country and family. The need they record is still real. People the ABS consulted generally agreed that living on traditional lands does not replace the need for adequate housing.
- Boarding houses and other temporary lodgings don't compare directly between 2016 and 2021. The ABS used new sources in 2021. Emergency accommodation during COVID-19 also moved some people who would have slept out into other temporary lodgings. So part of any change in the total between the two Censuses comes from how the ABS counted.
- A high count often shows where refuges, boarding houses and support services are, and the cost and supply of housing nearby. It is not a judgement about the people counted. Reading it that way would be deficit framing.
See the marker methodology for how these figures are calculated and their limitations.
To see homes that need extra bedrooms, look at housing suitability. To see how much of their income households spend on rent, look at rent affordability.